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OUTFRONT Media Inc. (OUT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • OUTFRONT delivered a solid beat on revenue and EPS: Q3 revenue $467.5M vs S&P Global consensus $458.3M* and diluted EPS $0.29 vs $0.25*; Adjusted OIBDA rose 17.2% to $137.2M, driven by a strong Transit recovery led by NYC MTA .
  • Management raised FY 2025 AFFO growth guidance to high single digits (from mid-single digits), and guided Q4 consolidated revenue growth to low mid-single digits with mid-teens Transit and low single-digit Billboard; excluding two exited Billboard contracts, Q4 consolidated growth would be mid to high single digits .
  • Transit segment revenue surged 23.7% YoY to $112.4M, swinging to $15.7M Adjusted OIBDA from a loss last year; Billboard revenue declined 2.2% YoY due to prior exits of two marginal contracts in NYC and L.A., though margins improved on cost actions .
  • Balance sheet de-risked: term loan maturity extended to 2032 and revolver to 2030; committed liquidity >$700M and net leverage at 4.7x, supporting the maintained $0.30 quarterly dividend .
  • Strategic catalysts: accelerating digital/programmatic sales and an AWS partnership to enable AI-native planning/buying/measurement of OOH inventory, reinforcing a tech-forward narrative .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Transit outperformed: revenues +23.7% YoY to $112.4M, and Adjusted OIBDA turned positive to $15.7M (from $(2.9)M); NYC MTA up ~37% on large tech/financial/pharma campaigns .
  • Margin expansion: Adjusted OIBDA up 17.2% to $137.2M and consolidated Adjusted OIBDA margin improved to 29.3% (from 25.9% YoY), reflecting cost discipline and high-margin Transit growth .
  • Confident outlook and guidance raise: “We are raising our AFFO guidance for the full year… high single-digit range versus prior mid-single-digit expectation” (CFO), with Q4 revenue growth expected to improve slightly from Q3 .

What Went Wrong

  • Billboard revenue declined 2.2% YoY to $352.8M, largely from lost billboards and exited contracts; however, Billboard Adjusted OIBDA still rose to $139.3M on lower lease and SG&A costs .
  • FFO fell 20.6% YoY to $99.7M driven by higher interest expense and cash taxes, despite stronger OIBDA; corporate expense rose $1.9M on consulting and refinancing costs .
  • Transit expenses up 4.2% YoY (franchise, maintenance, utilities) and MAG inflation on the MTA contract remains a structural headwind to costs .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trends (Actuals)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$390.7 $460.2 $467.5
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.14) $0.10 $0.29
Adjusted OIBDA ($USD Millions)$64.2 $124.1 $137.2
Adjusted OIBDA Margin %16.4% 27.0% 29.3%
FFO ($USD Millions)$26.5 $70.4 $99.7
AFFO ($USD Millions)$23.9 $85.3 $100.3

Actual vs Consensus

MetricQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus*
Revenue ($USD Millions)$467.5 $458.3*
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.29 $0.25*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$118.5*$128.9*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown

Segment MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Billboard Revenues ($USD Millions)$360.6 $351.3 $352.8
Transit Revenues ($USD Millions)$90.9 $106.3 $112.4
Other Revenues ($USD Millions)$0.4 $2.6 $2.3
Billboard Adjusted OIBDA ($USD Millions)$136.4 $134.4 $139.3
Transit Adjusted OIBDA ($USD Millions)$(2.9) $7.2 $15.7
Other Adjusted OIBDA ($USD Millions)$(0.1) $0.5 $0.4

KPIs (Q3 2025)

KPIValue
NYC MTA revenue growth YoY~37%
Digital revenue share of total35.4%
Programmatic/digital-direct share of digital revenues19.4%
Digital Transit revenues$56M
Boards converted to digital (Q3)29
Weighted average cost of debt5.4% (9/30/25)
Total indebtedness~$2.6B
Committed liquidity>$700M (cash ~$60M, revolver ~$500M, A/R facility $150M)
Net leverage4.7x

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
AFFO growth vs 2024FY 2025Mid-single digit High single digit Raised
Consolidated revenue growthQ4 2025N/ALow mid-single digits New
Transit revenue growthQ4 2025N/AMid-teens New
Billboard revenue growthQ4 2025N/ALow single-digit New
Billboard revenue excl. exited contractsQ4 2025N/AMid-single digits New
Consolidated revenue excl. exited contractsQ4 2025N/AMid to high single digits New
Interest expense ($)FY 2025N/A~$140–$145M New
Maintenance CAPEX ($)FY 2025N/A~$30–$35M New
Dividend per shareQ3/Q4 2025$0.30 $0.30 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Transit performance (MTA)Q1 Transit Adjusted OIBDA loss $(14.2)M; Q2 Transit Adjusted OIBDA +$7.2M Transit revenue +23.7% YoY; Adjusted OIBDA +$15.7M; NYC MTA +~37% Accelerating
Sales restructuring & enterprise/commercial focusSales function restructured in Q2 to drive future growth Transit “velocity team” and product marketing focus driving large-brand campaigns Executing well
Digital/programmaticTech platform emphasis (Q1); programmatic impacted Billboard yields (Q2) Digital revenues +12%; programmatic/digital-direct up ~30% to 19.4% of digital Rising mix
AI initiativesLimited prior commentaryAWS partnership to enable AI-native planning/buying/measurement of OOH Emerging
Macro/governmentQ1 noted uncertain economic climate No material impact from government shutdown; D.C. Transit resilient Neutral
Balance sheet & liquidityCost of debt ~5.4% (Q1/Q2) Refinanced term loan to 2032; revolver to 2030; liquidity >$700M; net leverage 4.7x Improved maturity profile
Dividend policy$0.30 maintained in Q1/Q2 $0.30 maintained; payable Dec 31, 2025 Stable

Management Commentary

  • “Our third quarter results exceeded our expectations across the board, particularly our transit revenues, which were driven by an exceptional performance in NYC.” — CEO Nick Brien .
  • “We are raising our AFFO guidance for the full year and now expect that our reported 2025 consolidated AFFO will grow in the high single-digit range versus our prior mid-single-digit expectation.” — CFO Matthew Siegel .
  • “We expect fourth quarter revenue growth to improve slightly from quarter three’s result… mid-teens growth in Transit and low single-digit growth in Billboard… excluding the $11M of Billboard revenue generated by exited contracts in Q4 2024, consolidated revenue would be mid to high single-digit.” — CEO Nick Brien .
  • “In a first for the industry, [our AWS] initiative will enable the planning, buying, and measurement of our inventory from end to end… creating new sales opportunities.” — Management on AWS partnership .

Q&A Highlights

  • Transformation progress: 2025 deemed a year of transformation; culture, sales enablement, technology, and operational excellence underpin momentum into Q4 and 2026 .
  • Transit drivers: Dedicated growth leadership, product marketing, and experiential campaigns (e.g., ESPN “E-train,” Bath & Body Works sensory takeover) fueling demand and high-margin incremental revenue .
  • Sales org restructuring: Enterprise vs. commercial segmentation tailored to client sophistication and objectives; Transit treated as city fabric, not “mobile billboard,” with product marketing emphasis .
  • Macro/government: Minimal impact from government shutdown on ad trends; D.C. Transit not meaningfully affected .
  • 2026 pipeline: Entertainment vertical expected healthier; major events (World Cup, Olympics) and experiential activations seen as opportunities to drive incremental revenue .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 beat: Revenue $467.5M vs $458.3M* and EPS $0.29 vs $0.25*; EBITDA was below consensus ($118.5M* actual vs $128.9M* estimate), noting OUT reports Adjusted OIBDA of $137.2M, a different metric .
  • Prior quarters: Q2 revenue $460.2M vs $461.0M* and EPS $0.10 vs $0.18*; Q1 revenue $390.7M vs $396.0M* and EPS $(0.14) vs $(0.09)* .
  • Forward: Q4 revenue consensus ~$511.6M* and EPS ~$0.46*; management guides Q4 consolidated growth to low mid-single digits (mid to high single digits excluding exited contracts), implying potential estimate adjustments depending on actual Transit strength .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Transit-led beat with NYC MTA strength and high-margin incremental revenue supports raised AFFO guidance and near-term momentum; expect Street models to reflect stronger Transit mix .
  • Billboard revenue headwind from exited contracts is deliberate portfolio management; margin expansion (39.5% Billboard Adjusted OIBDA margin) shows effective cost actions .
  • Q4 setup constructive: low mid-single-digit consolidated growth with mid-teens Transit; excluding exited contracts, mid to high single-digit growth—watch bookings cadence and enterprise campaign flow .
  • Tech narrative strengthening: programmatic/digital penetration rising; AWS partnership for AI-native workflows is a strategic differentiator to attract agency/brand budgets .
  • Balance sheet flexibility: extended maturities and >$700M liquidity with 4.7x net leverage underpin $0.30 dividend capacity and optionality for selective acquisitions .
  • Focus risks: MAG inflation on MTA and Transit cost creep, weaker categories (retail/alcohol/government political), and entertainment timing variability into 2026 .
  • Near-term trading lens: narrative favors Transit/digital execution and guidance raise; catalysts include Q4 revenue trajectory and evidence of AWS integration driving programmatic adoption .